[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"content-doc-dcio7782ee03":3},{"user":4,"document":8,"mainDocument":27,"columnUrl":29,"subscription":30,"footer":42,"text":77},{"isAuthenticated":5,"isAdmin":5,"displayName":6,"avatarUrl":6,"nid":6,"groupLevel":7},false,"",-10,{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":21,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":23,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"duration":24,"price":24,"priceText":25,"priceBadgeText":25,"priceBadgeClass":26,"freeForMinGroupLevel":24,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},"dcio7782ee03","SpaceX今天为什么大跌？","\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcio7782ee03","col18178739ee","美股资讯","\u002Fcol\u002Fcol18178739ee","\u003Cp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">SpaceX\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">今天大跌的原因是\u003C\u002Fspan>SpaceX\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">的承销银行正在筹备至少\u003C\u002Fspan>200\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">亿美元的债券发行。市场可能传递出的更深层信号，马斯克可能正在押注未来几年将迎来更大的增长周期。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">此外，\u003C\u002Fspan>SpaceX \u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">的当前估值非常贵，按照\u003C\u002Fspan>2026\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">年\u003C\u002Fspan>6\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">月\u003C\u002Fspan>18\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">日的市场价格，\u003C\u002Fspan>SpaceX\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">（\u003C\u002Fspan>SPCX\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">）的市值已达到约\u003C\u002Fspan>2.4\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">万亿至\u003C\u002Fspan>2.5\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">万亿美元，相比\u003C\u002Fspan>IPO\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">定价时的\u003C\u002Fspan>1.77\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">万亿美元，在短短几天内上涨超过\u003C\u002Fspan>40%\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">。仅从传统财务指标来看，这一估值显得非常昂贵。\u003C\u002Fspan>2025\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">年\u003C\u002Fspan>SpaceX\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">营收约为\u003C\u002Fspan>187\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">亿美元且仍未实现盈利，按目前约\u003C\u002Fspan>2.5\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">万亿美元的市值计算，其市销率（\u003C\u002Fspan>PS\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">）高达\u003C\u002Fspan>130\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">倍。作为对比，\u003C\u002Fspan>Tesla\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">的市销率约为\u003C\u002Fspan>17\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">倍，\u003C\u002Fspan>Palantir\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">约为\u003C\u002Fspan>81\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">倍，而同为航天领域的\u003C\u002Fspan>Rocket Lab\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">约为\u003C\u002Fspan>118\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">倍，这表明\u003C\u002Fspan>SpaceX\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">已处于极高的估值区间。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">然而，投资者并非基于当下的利润进行估值，而是在提前买入其庞大的未来版图。被视为最有价值资产的\u003C\u002Fspan>Starlink\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">是目前最赚钱的业务；同时，\u003C\u002Fspan>Falcon 9\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">与\u003C\u002Fspan>Starship\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">构筑了极高的技术壁垒，确立了其在火箭发射领域的全球垄断地位，几乎没有真正的竞争对手。更为重要的是，在今年整合\u003C\u002Fspan>xAI\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">之后，市场已不再将\u003C\u002Fspan>SpaceX\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">视为单纯的航天公司，而是将其看作“\u003C\u002Fspan>Starlink+\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">火箭\u003C\u002Fspan>+AI\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">基础设施\u003C\u002Fspan>+Grok+\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">数据中心”的结合体，一个涵盖“\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">、互联网、能源与航天”的超级平台。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">根据美股投资网\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tradesmax.com\u002F\">https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tradesmax.com\u002F\u003C\u002Fa> \u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">调研，华尔街对\u003C\u002Fspan>SpaceX\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">的合理价值存在巨大分歧。乐观派认为，\u003C\u002Fspan>Starlink\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">最终用户数可能达数亿，\u003C\u002Fspan>2030\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">年前总收入有望突破数千亿甚至\u003C\u002Fspan>1\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">万亿美元，加之\u003C\u002Fspan>Starship\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">将开启新产业周期，因此\u003C\u002Fspan>2\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">至\u003C\u002Fspan>3\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">万亿美元的市值只是起点。保守派如\u003C\u002Fspan>Morningstar\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">曾仅给予约\u003C\u002Fspan>7800\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">亿美元的估值，部分基金经理也指出当前股价包含明显的“马斯克溢价”，真实价值可能在\u003C\u002Fspan>1\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">万亿美元左右。如果将未来业务拆解来看：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">综合上述拆解，\u003C\u002Fspan>SpaceX\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">的保守估值在\u003C\u002Fspan>1.2\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">万亿至\u003C\u002Fspan>1.5\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">万亿美元之间，合理估值约为\u003C\u002Fspan>1.8\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">万亿至\u003C\u002Fspan>2.2\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">万亿美元，而在极度乐观的情景下可能达到\u003C\u002Fspan>3\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">万亿至\u003C\u002Fspan>5\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">万亿美元。因此，目前的估值绝不便宜，但如果马斯克能兑现“\u003C\u002Fspan>AI+Starlink+Starship\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">”的长期蓝图，也不能将其简单归结为泡沫。今天买入\u003C\u002Fspan>SpaceX\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">，犹如买入\u003C\u002Fspan>2014\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">年的\u003C\u002Fspan>Tesla\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">。真正决定未来十年其能否继续上涨的核心，在于\u003C\u002Fspan>Starlink\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">的现金流、\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">业务的成长速度，以及\u003C\u002Fspan>Starship\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">能否成功开启新的万亿美元市场。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">200\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">亿美元债券融资的深层意味\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">与此同时，\u003C\u002Fspan>SpaceX\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">正计划通过发行至少\u003C\u002Fspan>200\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">亿美元债券进行融资，相关投行已启动准备工作。这意味着公司选择的是借钱而非增发新股，投资者买入债券为\u003C\u002Fspan>SpaceX\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">提供现金，公司未来按约定还本付息，此举不会稀释现有股东的股份。如果消息属实，这将是近年来规模最大的企业债发行之一。对比\u003C\u002Fspan>Meta\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">此前的\u003C\u002Fspan>100\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">亿美元、\u003C\u002Fspan>Intel\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">的约\u003C\u002Fspan>110\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">亿美元，以及传统电信大厂通常\u003C\u002Fspan>100\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">亿至\u003C\u002Fspan>150\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">亿美元的单次融资规模，\u003C\u002Fspan>SpaceX\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">一口气融资\u003C\u002Fspan>200\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">亿美元，足以说明公司正在为某些超大型项目储备充足的“弹药”。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">这笔巨额资金大概率将流向三个核心领域。首当其冲的是“烧钱机器”\u003C\u002Fspan>Starship\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">，其每次试飞成本高达数亿美元，未来的第二代研发、海上发射平台、火星计划以及全球点对点运输都需要巨额资本。其次是\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">数据中心，整合\u003C\u002Fspan>xAI\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">后，训练下一代\u003C\u002Fspan>Grok\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">模型需要数十万张\u003C\u002Fspan>GPU\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">、超级数据中心及庞大的电力基础设施，这同样需要数百亿美元投资。最后是\u003C\u002Fspan>Starlink\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">的扩张，截至\u003C\u002Fspan>2026\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">年，\u003C\u002Fspan>Starlink\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">在轨卫星已超\u003C\u002Fspan>1\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">万颗，用户破千万，未来推进\u003C\u002Fspan>Direct-to-Cell\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">、企业网络及国防业务仍需持续高频发射大量卫星。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">SpaceX\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">之所以选择此时借债，是因为随着公司估值攀升、\u003C\u002Fspan>EBITDA\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">持续增长以及信用评级提升，它迎来了最佳的融资时机。它正试图利用低成本债务撬动更大的资本扩张。利好派解读认为，敢于借贷\u003C\u002Fspan>200\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">亿美元，说明管理层极度自信未来的现金流足以覆盖本息，马斯克正押注未来几年将迎来更大的增长周期。但谨慎派也提醒，如果\u003C\u002Fspan>Starship\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">研发延缓、\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">投资回报不及预期或宏观利率维持高位，这笔巨债将成为沉重负担，毕竟“高估值\u003C\u002Fspan>+\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">高资本开支\u003C\u002Fspan>+\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">高杠杆”是成长股最大的风险组合。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">总体而言，这一融资动作释放了一个更深层的信号：\u003C\u002Fspan>SpaceX\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">正在从一家依赖私募和股权融资的“创业公司”，蜕变为像\u003C\u002Fspan>Amazon\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">、\u003C\u002Fspan>Alphabet\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">和\u003C\u002Fspan>Microsoft\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">那样，善于利用资产负债表进行超级扩张的资本密集型全球科技基础设施巨头。这与\u003C\u002Fspan>2000\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">年代的\u003C\u002Fspan>Amazon\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">或\u003C\u002Fspan>2010\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">年代的\u003C\u002Fspan>Tesla\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">开始大规模举债扩张的轨迹如出一辙。如果\u003C\u002Fspan>200\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">亿美元只是一个开始，未来几年\u003C\u002Fspan>SpaceX\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">累计融资规模达到\u003C\u002Fspan>500\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">亿甚至\u003C\u002Fspan>1000\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">亿美元，也并非没有可能。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003C\u002Fp>","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tradesmax.com\u002Fimages\u002Fa_Stock\u002FS\u002FSPCX\u002FSPCX.jpg","2026-06-18T18:06:13","2026.06.18","2026\u002F06\u002F18",59792,[22],"SPCX","Article",0,"免费","success",{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":28,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":23,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"duration":24,"price":24,"priceText":25,"priceBadgeText":25,"priceBadgeClass":26,"freeForMinGroupLevel":24,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},[22],"\u002Fcol\u002Fstocknews",{"visible":5,"marketingHtml":31,"services":32,"recentDocuments":41},"\u003Cfigure class=\"image\">\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcio537efad5\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener 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